Air fares Europe may climb 20% in 2027, Ryanair boss predicts

Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has forecast an unprecedented surge in European plane ticket prices next year, warning that carriers are ill-prepared for jet fuel expenses driven upward by Middle East hostilities. Speaking at a Brussels press conference, O’Leary said most airlines lack hedging protection against escalating jet fuel costs — a gap he expects to trigger bankruptcies and consolidation across the sector. He projected ticket prices could climb by as much as 20% as a result. “You’re going to see air fares rise next year in Europe, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%. You’re going to see ⁠the biggest increase in air fares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months,” O’Leary told a news conference in Brussels.

Fuel Costs Soar as Conflict Bites

Jet fuel prices have climbed sharply in recent months after the war on Iran disrupted supplies. Fuel represents a substantial share of airline operating expenses. The industry body IATA had previously projected jet fuel prices would be 70% higher across 2026 — averaging an estimated $152 (£114) per barrel for the year, versus $90 in 2025 — which would erode carriers’ profitability. According to O’Leary, Ryanair and numerous other European airlines had secured hedging for their 2026 jet fuel needs. He noted Ryanair was 80% hedged at $67 a barrel when the Iran conflict erupted in late February.

Hedging Gap Beyond 2027

Despite that protection, the head of Europe’s largest airline cautioned that most European carriers — Ryanair included — lack meaningful hedging from April 2027 onward should oil prices stay elevated. “We’re 85% unhedged next year, and most of the other European airlines are in a similar position,” O’Leary said. Ryanair’s 2027 hedging contract covers just 15% of its fuel costs at $85 a barrel, he added, while spot rates currently sit at roughly twice that level. EasyJet, meanwhile, reported a £105m annual increase in fuel costs in July. The carrier said it had hedged 62% of its fuel needs for the first half of 2027 and 37% for the second half. In October it announced it was removing 700,000 seats from its winter schedule to conserve fuel.

Belgium Routes Cut Over Tax Rise

During his Brussels visit, O’Leary also revealed Ryanair would axe 20 routes and more than one million seats from Belgium in its winter schedule. The move follows the federal government’s decision to raise aviation tax from €2 to €7 in January. O’Leary joins a growing list of executives sounding alarms about aviation’s prospects. Industry leaders have cautioned that some carriers will not withstand the fuel price shock. Passenger surveys indicate travellers anticipate higher fares and are willing to pay more — though airlines remain uncertain how long consumers can absorb escalating ticket prices.